Risk Analyses on Beijing-Tianjin High-Speed Railway Project

摘要

This paper presents the principle of completeness in the risk analyses for large infrastructure projects. To counter the situation that in current large project risk analyses there lacks a proper simulation method which satisfied this completeness principle, a new approach has been proposed. It is based on the traditional Delphi method and improved by fuzzy theory. With this method the probability distribution of change rate for each risk factor could be obtained. Then the risk simulation could be taken by using Monte Carlo method. Taking the under construction Beijing-Tianjin High-Speed Railway project as an example, this paper illustrate the detail analyses process. Several promising conclusions have been drawn with its simulation result. This paper not only provided a practical method which could be efficiently used in analyzing risk of large infrastructure projects, but also has a reference value for the similar risk analyses cases.