A method of collaborative multi-path load forecasting based on maximum entropy principle

摘要

This paper introduces synergetic theory and proposes multi-path load forecasting automatically coordinated approach based on the maximum entropy principle. Taking the expectation and second order central moment of forecasted results into account and using the maximum entropy principle,this synergetic load forecasting method receives the probability distribution function of the forecasted values and obtains the final high, middle and low forecasting scheme based on the probability theory. Case study has shown the model and method mentioned above can take the affection of the conflicts among different forecasting path into account in forecasting, resulting in higher precision of load forecasting.