EVALUATION OF ICE THICKNESS AS A PARAMETER IN RIVERBREAK-UP FORECAST MODELLING

摘要

During spring break-up, the Athabasca River frequently experiences ice jams in the vicinityof the City of Fort McMurray. Because of the danger to life and property associated with ice jam relatedflooding, a method of forecasting the risk of a severe break-up would be highly beneficial. While icethickness has been identified decades ago as a key factor in forecasting river ice break-up, it is onlyrecently that any serious scientific effort has been made to include it in a quantitative ice jam forecastmodel. Both recent forecast models, a linear multiple regression model and a fuzzy expert system, for theAthabasca River are very sensitive to the measured value of ice thickness. This paper presents theresults of an extensive investigation into the ice thickness measurements as part of establishing acomplete database from which to develop future models. The effect of this research on the previouslydiscussed models is evaluated.