A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR RISK ASSESSMENT IN PIPELINEPROJECTS

摘要

Construction projects exist in complex environment, which rises uncertainty and high risk.Schedule overrun and cost overrun are key factors that might cause failure of construction projects. It isvery important to assess the risk, associated with a construction project, before and after its start, whichleads to such failure. This paper presents an overview for a decision support system (DSS-PL) that isdedicated to estimate the schedule and cost overruns in pipe-line projects. The system utilizes a multiattributeutility model (MAU-PL) and a Bayesian belief network model (BBN-PL). Most important attributesthat impact the schedule and cost overrun have been identified. MAU-PL model is designed to organizethe attributes in a hierarchal structure using analytical hierarchy process. It measures the degree ofsatisfaction of the attributes using utility theory approach. BBN-PL is designed to receive and assess theutility values from MAU-PL using the Bayesian networks concept.