When Mother Nature Smiles – Multi-year Analysis of Currents at the Macondo Well Site

摘要

Contrary to popular belief, the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout and oil spill could have been far more environmentally and economically catastrophic. Relatively benign metocean conditions persisted in the Gulf of Mexico during the spill response efforts at the Macondo site. Statistical evidence indicates that metocean conditions could have been far worse, making the response efforts significantly more challenging and the economical repercussions orders of magnitude greater. Analysis of historical data and statistical trends over the past 26 years enumerates 22 separate incursions of the Loop Current or Loop Current Eddy into northern Mississippi Canyon. Such conditions can vastly complicate the scale of response efforts. Here we are presenting the possible impacts of worst-case environmental scenarios on response efforts at the Macondo site and the potential repercussions of strong Loop Current events during the oil spill. This study will help outline effective metocean risk management strategies for deepwater operators to mitigate the effects of oil spills in the future.