The use of probit functions in the quantitative risk assessment of domino accidents caused by overpressure

摘要

Domino effect is a well-known cause of severe accidents in the chemical and process industry. Several studies pointed out that the more critical step in the quantitative assessment of domino hazards is the estimation of reliable functions to estimate the propagation probability of primary accidents to possible secondary targets. This work focused on the revision of available models for the quantitative estimation of damage probability to plant equipment caused by pressure waves generated by a primary accident. Available data on damages to process equipment caused by pressure waves were retrieved and analyzed. Several specific probit functions for different elements of process equipment were obtained from the analysis of failure data. The application of the propagation probability models to the comprehensive risk analysis of an industrial site allowed a quantitative estimation of the contribution of domino effect to individual and societal risk indexes.