Economic Accidental Risk Analysis: experience from real life projects

摘要

Accidental risk is a function of the probabilities and consequences of undesirable events. The consequences could be loss of lives and/or injuries, environmental damage and/or economic loss. Economic Accidental Risk Analysis (EARA) is a methodology adopted by Statoil that focuses on economic losses. The experiences with this methodology after application in a few real life projects are mainly positive. For comparison studies, where just parts of the economic losses are predicted, it provides sound decision support. But if the purpose is to only focus on the absolute economic risk itself without performing a comparison, the problem lies in how to utilise this new risk information. One reason for this is the lack of experience with EARA; a common band is not yet established. Experience does of course exist, but since the focus in an EARA is on rare, major accidents, relevant historical experience is limited and not so adequate. This will hopefully change over the years to come.