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Bayes inference for a bounded failure intensity process

机译:有限失效强度过程的贝叶斯推断

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The failure pattern of repairable mechanical equipment subject to deterioration phenomena sometimes shows a finite bound for the increasing failure intensity. A non-homogeneous Poisson process with bounded increasing failure intensity is then illustrated and its characteristics are discussed. A Bayes procedure, based on prior information on model-free quantities, is developed in order to allow technical information on the failure process to be incorporated into the inferential procedure. Posterior inference on the model-free quantities, on the model parameters and on the expected number of failures is provided, as well as prediction on the future failure times and on the number of failures in a future time interval. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the proposed inferential procedure.
机译:易发生损坏现象的可修复机械设备的故障模式有时对增加的故障强度显示出有限的界限。然后说明了失效强度有界增加的非均匀泊松过程,并讨论了其特征。根据有关无模型数量的先验信息,开发了一种贝叶斯程序,以便将有关故障过程的技术信息合并到推理程序中。提供了对无模型数量,模型参数和预期故障数量的后验推断,以及对未来故障时间和未来时间间隔内故障数量的预测。最后,通过数值例子说明了所提出的推理过程。

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