Would You Know a Good Decision if You Saw One?

摘要

Ever since the early publication by Grayson,1 we have seen anincreasing interest in decision-analysis in the oil and gasindustry. There have been numerous studies and publicationsdiscussing methods and models for rational decision-making.Given the inherent limitations of intuition and heuristics, onemight expect decision-makers to be delighted with the moreconsistent approach provided by rational decision-makingtechniques. Modern decision models can help process largeamounts of information without losing valuable pieces. Theynever suffer from distraction, fatigue, boredom or randomerror. They are consistent, week after week.Yet, in spite of these obvious advantages, people treatthese with a nearly instinctive distaste. They are particularlyresistant to the idea that simple models can validly make suchsubjective evaluations. For some, that resistance may stemsimply from unfamiliarity with the statistics and probabilityinvolved. Many more, however, subscribe to the widespreadassumption that human judgment is more discerning than amodel. They are reluctant to believe that simple mathematicalcalculations can match the complexity of the human mind.“Take away an ordinary person’s illusions,“ says Dr. Rellingin Henrik Ibsen’s Villanden, “and you take away happiness atthe same time.”A particularly interesting aspect of human judgment anddecision-making are the traps we unknowingly step into.Many decision-makers believe that intuition, repeatedexperience and their general intelligence will see themthrough. Unfortunately, as will be discussed in the paper,intuition and repetition are unreliable teachers at best.