EVALUATION OF ADVANCED COMBINED CYCLE POWER SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT USING GERT

摘要

A GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique) model was constructed to evaluate the development process of IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle) systems and LNGCC (Liquefied Natural Gas Combined Cycle) systems having different values of thermal efficiency. Data on elemental technology developments were gathered from Japanese experts through a questionnaire and put into the GERT model. Analyses were made stochastically, and the obtained results include 1) the probability that the technology development is completed within next 35 years is 0.84 for IGCC-43 % higher heating value (HHV) efficiency, 0.63 for IGCC-48 %, 0.43 for IGCC-50 %, 0.37 for IGCC-55 %, 0.88 for LNGCC-55 % and 0.56 for LNGCC-60 % and 2) if additional money is to be spent to accelerate the systems technology development, the investment should be made in the development of the following elemental technologies in terms of earlier completion of the development; a) the air blown coal gasification technology for all the IGCCs and the dry sulfur-removal technology for the IGCCs having higher efficiency than 43%, b) the vane and blade cooling structure designing technology and the oxygen blown combustor technology for LNGCC-55 %, and the super-heat-resistant blade material technology for LNGCC-60 %.