Anticipating accidents that have not happened yet: A quantitative approach and airline maintenance application

摘要

Foresight and precaution often imply measures and tradeoffs regarding accidents that have not happened yet, but might. These accidents can often be anticipated by careful system's analysis and identification of its weak points to prevent rare failures, assuming that the frequent ones have been addressed. For a major airline, we studied the maintenance of the flaps and slats of an airplane leading edge, a system that has not caused yet a plane crash. We constructed a probabilistic model of its possible malfunctions and of a subsequent accident. We also analyzed the process and the quality of the maintenance as a function of factors such as location, maintenance crews' training, and availability of spare parts. Linking these two models allowed us to make recommendations for a more effective management of airplane maintenance and for safer flights, and also, to show how a reactive policy can be changed to a proactive one.