The Innovator's Dilemma makes a great case for the fuel cell, though fuel cells are never mentioned. Fuel cells are simpler and smaller than conventional generation equipment. Fuel cells appeal right now mostly to a niche market―customers who are located in remote areas or do not have nearby distribution access. Utilities today are focused on their established customer base like never before. Those existing customers are not clamoring for fuel cells. The niche markets are not that attractive to utilities. The electric power market is a mature market. Introducing new technologies into the market carries risks. There may be NO value network in the marketplace for the product. There may be an unexpected shift in the value network such as the Arab oil embargo or the passage of legislation. As with ZapMail, utilities might attempt to hold onto market share by owning fuel cells and selling fuel-cell generated power, when in fact, the technology could become affordable for self-generation. Fuel cells have the potential to be an extremely successful technological innovation. There are risks, however. This observer will side with those who believe the risks of losing out if fuel cells are a success is a greater risk than losing some investment if fuel cells fizzle.
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