Stochastic modeling of long-term waste package degradation incorporating expert elicitation on corrosion processes

摘要

The Viability Assessment (VA) of the potential repository for high-level nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada was completed [1]. In the VA design concept, a two-layer waste container provides the primary component of the engineered barrier system (EBS). The VA reference design specifies a 100-mm thick carbon steel as the outer barrier and a 20-mm thick alloy 22 as the inner barrier. A stochastic simulation model was developed to analyze long-term performance of the waste package in the potential repository. The model was developed by incorporating the latest corrosion data and models for the candidae waste package materials and the information developed from the Waste Package Degradation Expert Elicitation (WPDEE) [2].