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Human reliability assessment by using an expert judgement methodology

机译:使用专家判断方法进行人员可靠性评估

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Human reliability is an important part of PSA of a nuclear power plant (NPP). Empirical human reliability data is a constantly sparse. Thus, HRA can be seen as a suitable application area of expert judgement. The case described in the paper is the HRA study for a shutdown LOCA case of a NOrdic BWR NPP. Applying expert judgement to HRA includes training of experts, individual expert work, expert reporting, joint disucssions, intervies (judgement elicitiation), feedback and anlaysis of the expert judgements by normative experts. In our case, the emphasis was put on experts' reasoning to aviod biases and too simplified use of heuristics. The combination of expert judgements took place by using a Bayesian model. In the paper, we describe the methodology and discuss both the qualitative and the quantitiative results. Insights about the work will be presented. We will also disucss the applicability of the methodology and make some recommendations.
机译:人的可靠性是核电厂(NPP)PSA的重要组成部分。凭经验得出的人类可靠性数据一直在稀疏。因此,HRA可被视为专家判断的合适应用领域。本文描述的案例是针对北欧BWR NPP关闭LOCA案例的HRA研究。将专家判断应用于HRA包括对专家的培训,个别专家的工作,专家报告,联合讨论,访谈(判断引发),规范专家的反馈和对专家判断的分析。在我们的案例中,重点放在专家对避免偏见和过于简化启发式方法使用的推理上。专家判断的组合是通过使用贝叶斯模型进行的。在本文中,我们描述了方法,并讨论了定性和定量结果。将介绍有关工作的见解。我们还将讨论该方法的适用性并提出一些建议。

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