Analysis of events to support risk evaluation of nuclear power plants

摘要

The present paper tives an overview of the approach outlied for quantitative analyese of risks associated with real operational events. The general conept of the proposed precursor event analysis methodology is described. anaysis of precursor events in a broader sense is based on probabilistic safety indicators of different levels of risk and on the appropriately chosen quality control system. An approach for defining optimal indocators and quality control schemes is proposed. Second, some specific issues are addressed concerning modelling of the operaturional events such as probabilisitc safety assessment (PSA) model developments and human factor modelling. A precursor analysis system is now under development. Preliminary results gained during the case study evaluations of past historical events are presented.