QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF SHIPBOARD FIRE BY FIRST-PRINCIPLES TOOLS

摘要

Fire constitutes one of the biggest risks to safety onboard ships, necessitating realistic simulationof ship evacuation under fire conditions. This work presents the use of simulation tools to assess the firesafety performance of a ship design as an alternative to the regulations-based approach. A computationalfluid dynamics tool is used to predict the fire effluent parameters at different locations of the modelledship, which are then processed by an evacuation simulation program to generate a domain with hazardousfire conditions from which the passengers must evacuate. The level of impairment due to heat and toxicityfor each evacuee is calculated using the fractional effective dose concept, while reduced visibility affectsthe walking speed of evacuees according to smoke concentration. Thereafter, the different values ofimpairment levels are assigned to different health status conditions ranging from mild injury to lethality inorder to measure the fire scenario consequences in terms of the resulting number of fatalities and injuries.