SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ON BUILDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION TAKING INTO ACCOUNT STOCHASTIC HUMAN BEHAVIOUR

摘要

The sensitivity analysis is a well-known tool to determine what parameters are the most influent on a considered output of a system. In the case of building simulation this kind of analysis can be used to know whether an influence factor has a great impact or not on the total building energy consumption. One of the leak points of nowadays simulations is that they usually include only simple daily static profiles to model the occupancy and fixed control rules to model the lighting, windows, appliances and shadings use. Theses models do not represent in details the real human behaviour which may vary from day to day depending on factors linked to the occupants lifestyle in itself and on random external factors that can not be properly modelled in a simulation. A typical house was considered in this analysis and modelled with the TRNSYS software. A set of influence factors are defined and a first sensitivity analysis on the total energy consumption of each building is carried out using static profiles for human behaviour. This analysis is based on the Monte-Carlo method and is run using the building modelling capabilities of TRNSYS.