A Novel Conflict Resolution Model Based on the Composition of Probabilistic Preferences

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to develop a four-stage conflict resolution model. In the first stage, a multicriteria model is developed for each of the conflicting parties, taken as decision makers (DMs) facing evaluations of a set of alternatives according to proper criteria. In the second stage, the composition of probabilistic preferences (CPP) methodology is applied to identify the best alternative for each of the conflicting parties. In the third stage, negotiation is carried out to remove alternatives and to focus on the subset of best alternatives for the group of DMs. The fourth stage consists of applying CPP again to choose one among the remaining alternatives. The model is illustrated by means of applying it to a real-world conflict in Brazil, related to implementation of the New Recife Project. The main features of the model are that it allows the DMs (i) to understand differences and proximities among the positions of each of them, (ii) to strategically reduce the initial set of alternatives, (iii) to advance in their positions towards a common goal, and (iv) to construct a unique final solution quickly.