Risk Evaluation of Railway Business Line Construction Plan Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Bayesian Network

摘要

In order to improve the construction level of highspeed railway business lines, ensure the quality status of highspeed rail facilities, reduce the risk of business line construction, rational evaluating the business line construction plan risk is an urgent research. This paper combines Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Bayesian network(BN) and adapts AHP to determine the weight of each indicator; Based on BN theory, constructs a probabilistic model of business line construction risk evaluation and calculates the probability of different risk factors as low, medium and high risk. Finally takes the Beijing Railway Bureau's business line as an example to conduct a comprehensive evaluation, and concludes that the overall risk factor of the project is at a medium risk level, and the evaluation results are in good agreement with the actual site, therefore indicating that this evaluation method is more comprehensive exhaustive than the existing evaluation methods, it has certain practical significance for the railway site construction plan.)