A Technique for Integral Evaluation and Forecast of the Performance of a Complex Economic System

摘要

The main stages and components of a technology to solve problems of integrated (composite) evaluating and forecasting the performance of a complex economical system are described to support making efficient managerial decisions based on an aggregate and therefore observable information. We introduce the three novelties in the task of construction the synthetic integral index: some kind of fuzzy interpretation of values of a primary economic indicator; based on it a nonlinear method for normalizing indicators; approach to forecasting the index. An example of using the technology to analysis and forecast of the investment activity in Ukraine is presented.