IMPACTS OF EMPIRICAL DESIGN MARGINS AND ON-ORBIT PERFORMANCE ON AEROSPACE INSTRUMENTS

摘要

Costs of aerospace missions have increased over the last twenty years placing the future of the space program in jeopardy. A potential cause for such growth can be attributed to the complexity of aerospace systems and the inherent culture of optimism required to implement aerospace designs. This complexity and optimism often leads to uncertainty in the design process. Design margins provide additional capability to mitigate uncertainties and are typically specified by empirical methods or experience. This paper describes a methodology to analyze interrelationships between empirically derived instrument margins and on-orbit performance. Statistical analysis was used to examine thirty spaceflight instruments, determining if the aerospace industry over or under designs as a result of excessive or insufficient margins. The findings can be used by systems engineers, designers, and project managers to forge a paradigm towards using statistical data analysis as a systematic means to change intrinsic design principles to control costs.