Uncertainty Quantification Analysis of the Aviation Environmental Design Tool in Emission Inventory and Air Quality Modeling

摘要

Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) is a software system that models aircraft performance in space and time to estimate fuel consumption, emissions, noise, and air quality impacts and is the next generation FAA environmental consequence tool. An uncertainty quantification analysis was conducted to provide verification and validation of AEDT against the legacy tool Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS) for fuel consumption and emissions modeling. The objective of this paper is to validate the fuel consumption, emissions inventory and emissions concentration modeled by AEDT and investigate causes that lead to the differences between AEDT and EDMS. The factors that were investigated include weather, engine emission databank coefficients, Aircraft Noise and Performance Model (ANP) coefficients, flight procedure and trajectory, taxi time, aircraft, operation type, and operation modes. The findings and recommendations resulting from the uncertainty quantification analysis for AEDT on fuel consumption and emissions modeling were also presented and discussed.