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Short-Term Capital Flows in China: Trend, Determinants and Policy Implications

机译:中国短期资本流动:趋势,决定因素和政策影响

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The volatility of international capital flows have further increased both in volume and speed since the outbreak of subprime crisis originating from America. Orientation of international capital flows blurred because of the downward expectation on the growth rate in main countries. Since the short-term capital flow has gradually become an important part of international capital flow in China in decade, the volatility of short-term capital flows may affect the development of Chinese economy severely. A structural model-VECM was build to explore the determinants of net flows of short-term capital in China. The conclusions of this study were that net flows in China are largely determined by estate price, circulated stock value, expectation on exchange rate and interest rate. On that basis, some policy suggestions were proposed.
机译:自从源自美国的次贷款危机爆发以来,国际资本流动的波动率进一步增加。由于对主要国家的增长率的向下期望而模糊的国际资本流动的定位。由于短期资本流量逐渐成为中国国际资本流动的重要组成部分,短期资本流动的波动可能会严重影响中国经济的发展。结构模型 - VECM是为探索中国短期资本的净流量的决定因素。本研究的结论是中国的净流量主要由房地产价格,循环股票价值,对汇率和利率的预期决定。在此基础上,提出了一些政策建议。

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