Study on the Electricity Replacement Potential in Japan and South Korea Under the Northeast Asia Grid Interconnection Scenario

摘要

The paper studied the potentials of electricity replacement in different industries in Japan and South Korea from 2020 to 2050. Based on the influences analysis about main factors in secondary industry and electric vehicle development, an improved BASS model (Bass Diffusion Model), relevant to the diffusion of new product was proposed. Through a model-based study, the amount of electric energy replacement in Japan and South Korea from 2020 to 2050 was predicted under the Northeast Asia Grid Interconnection Scenario.