Predicting Geothermal Reserves of Sorik-Marapi Field through Monte-Carlo Simulation Study

摘要

This study examines the potential reserve from Sorik-Marapi Field in North Sumatra, Indonesia. In order to assess the project status of geothermal field development, reserve estimation should be done with regard to the government target. Due to limited number of available data, a combination of statistic approach through Monte-Carlo Simulation and initial heat in place equation was applied. Moreover, the effect of generation time and reservoir temperature was evaluated to predict the possibility of Sorik- Marapi in pursuing 240 MW electricity generation target from the Government of Indonesia. The results indicated high possibility of developing the project for 25 years. Meanwhile, resource sustainability maintenance may increase the probability of electricity generation over the target for more than 30 years.