Satellite imagery plays a key role in tracking and assessing the capabilities of weapons programs around the world. Using Iran's Shahrud missile testing site as an example, we will demonstrate how open source geospatial information such as satellite imagery and 3D modelling can be used to assess Iran's missile development. This is particularly salient given the uncertain fate of the JCPOA. Iran's missile program has raised tensions between JCPOA parties and could jeopardize the integrity of the agreement. The Shahrud site has undergone dramatic recent construction. In contrast to the widely publicized Imam Khomeini Space Center, reports on these upgrades have been scarce, suggesting that the site is used for less public military activities. Satellite images of the Shahrud site purchased by the James Marin Center for Nonproliferation Studies reveal new roads, buildings, checkpoints, fences, surplus construction material, underground tunneling and significantly enhanced security features. The site contains a large concrete vertical launch facility and flame trench. The authors believe that there is new evidence of a horizontal test facility as well as the construction of possible air defenses in images taken in November 2016. This is significant because horizontal testing usually implies solid-fuel motor development. By using geospatial tools to monitor this development, we can assess Iran's progress towards developing extended range capabilities that could be deployed at shorter notice than liquid-fuelled variants. We will also analyze the imagery using different band combinations to make qualitative assessments about the nature of the motor tests. Furthermore, the authors will compare open source satellite imagery of known Iranian air defenses such as SAM sites around Tehran and Esfahan with identified constructions at the Shahrud site. We claim that the patterns of said constructions suggest that they will be used as a SAM site. We will also flag differences between the placement of various SAM variants in order to predict the variant that will be deployed at the Shahrud site. Putting our conclusions in the broader picture, we believe that the testing activities and surplus construction material indicate that Iran is making more progress than previously thought towards developing a three-stage ICBM.
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