ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF AGRO-CLIMATOLOGICAL DROUGHTS OVER MARATHWADA, INDIA, USING REMOTE SENSING TECHNOLOGIES

摘要

Marathwada meteorological subdivision is one of the highest rainfall deficit regions of agricultural India, known for its severe droughts and incessant farmer suicides in the recent years. Over these areas, droughts and exceptionally dicey weather hinders rural development to a major extent. The present study sheds light on unseasonal and deficient rainfall over Marathwada, and its battle with dismal droughts resulting this area as one of the most poorly developed region of the country. This study represents outcome of trend analysis for monsoonal precipitation over Marathwada for the period from 1951 to 2016. Monsoon rainfall variability reflects into drought scenarios in recurring months. Temperature Condition Index (TCI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) were used to understand the spatio-temporal occurrences of droughts in the study area. The investigation of droughts includes use of remote sensing data acquired by Terra Moderate- Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MOD11A2 and MOD13A2. Standard algorithms for Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalize Deferential Vegetation Index (NDVI) were used to estimate TCI and VCI respectively. Linear regressions, Mann-Kendal rank test are the techniques used for analysis and to verify significant changing patterns in rainfall. The results obtained for overall monsoon rainfall series indicated negative rainfall trends over almost all parts of Marathwada, in which significantly decreasing rainfall trend was noticed over the Latur district. Declining rainfall trends follows with the brutal drought situations in the post monsoon season. During the last decade more than half of the study area had moderate to severe drought conditions. Particularly the parts of the Beed and Osmanabad districts of Marathwada, constantly recorded highest drought severity. Negative rainfall trends, increasing drought frequency are threatening the Rabi crops and overall agriculture. The study indicates that, water scarcity and pertinent drought conditions may continue in coming years.