APPLYING CORROSION GROWTH RATES DERIVED FROM REPEAT ILI RUNS TO PREDICT FUTURE SEVERITY

摘要

Corrosion is still one of the major threats to the integrity of onshore and offshore pipelines. Realistic corrosion growth rates are essential inputs to safe and effective pipeline integrity management decisions. For example, corrosion rates are needed to predict pipeline reliability as a function of time, to identify the need for and timing of field investigations and/or repairs and to determine optimum re-inspection intervals to name just a few applications. The consequences associated with using wrong corrosion growth rates range from the inefficient use of resources (time, people and money) on unnecessary repairs and/or inspections to unexpected pipeline releases. The identification of where corrosion is active on a pipeline and how fast it is growing is a complex process which is understood in the general sense but is highly variable. Corrosion is therefore difficult to predict due to the very localised nature of its behaviour and the many parameters that influence the corrosion reaction. Running an in-line inspection (ILI) tool in a pipeline identifies the internal and/or external corrosion located along the full length of the pipeline. The ILI inspection also determines the depth, length and width measurements for each corrosion site and for the overall feature. The use of repeat ILI data to match and compare metal loss sites in order to estimate the corrosion growth rates at individual defects along a pipeline is a well-used and established practice in the industry. The use of such corrosion rates to make predictions of the future integrity of a pipeline started in earnest approximately 5 to 10 years ago and over that time considerable experience has been gained. Now that we are starting to collect 3, 4 or even 5 or more ILI data sets for the same pipelines we are able to test and validate our earlier ILI based growth rate predictions versus what actually occurred in the pipeline over time. With the benefit of this hindsight, the methodologies employed for evaluating and applying ILI based corrosion rates can be further improved and refined to give more accurate predictions of the future pipeline condition, the response schedule and for setting the timing of re-inspections. This paper shares the experience gained and the improvements that can be made to the determination of corrosion rates and application of these rates in a pipeline integrity assessment. These topics are illustrated and investigated via the use of case studies on real ILI data sets.