Towards a generic prognostic function of technical multi-component systems taking into account the uncertainties of the predictions of their components

摘要

This article presents the first elements of a generic function that assesses the capacity of technical multi-component systems to accomplish the assigned productive tasks from production planning. This assessment is based on the prognostics of their components. It must so be able to process inaccuracies and uncertainties of these prognostics. For its implementation the aimed function combines the Dempster-Shafer theory combined and Bayesian inferences. The paper presents the multi-component system modeling and the inferences for the different identified structures as well as a general algorithm. The final aim of the proposed generic function is to compute decision supports for cooperative maintenance and production management.