Long term expansion planning of the Brazilian generation system using dynamic systems

摘要

This work has been conducted in order to develop a Generation Expansion Planning model based on Dynamic Systems to come up with a new approach to be applied to the Brazilian generation system regarding the one currently used. Moreover the new model intends to become a flexible tool to evaluate scenarios regarding the power sector evolution. Dynamic Systems have a wide range of applications. The use of these tools has been gaining success in the power sector by their ability to observe and model interdependences and feedbacks between the different system variables. This kind of approach was then implemented in many power systems. The work is introducing new features to this approach based on specific characteristics of the Brazilian Power System, namely: the large penetration of hydropower and the possibility of energy storage; seasonality of power generation; existence of electricity submarkets with transmissions constraints between them. The results obtained so far show that the Dynamic System developed can represent in good conditions the main features of the Brazilian system, whereas it identifies and correctly shows patterns of water management and energy prices that comply with the reality. These results show that the approach under development can become a valuable asset for both public entities that perform long-term plans and for power system agents.