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PARAMETRIC STUDY RELATED TO THE COLLISION PROBABILITY BETWEEN TWO RISERS

机译:两次上升之间碰撞概率的参数研究

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Efficient and accurate methods for assessment of riser collision become increasingly important as offshore oil and gas exploration moves into deeper water. Collisions may occur as a result of the environmental loading (current and waves), flow interaction and surface floater motions, or combinations of these effects. This paper provides a parametric study on the influence of these factors, especially the influence of the fluid interference on the minimum distance statistics. The conditional collision probability for two flexible risers in a tandem arrangement is also estimated for sea-states with a 100 year return period. The drag coefficient of the downstream riser is reduced due to flow-field interaction according to the relative position of the risers. The reduced drag force results in a decrease of the relative distance between two risers when current is applied. This leads to an increase of collision probability. In this paper, the drag coefficient is obtained by Blevins wake model and used for both static and dynamic analysis. The statistics of the minimum distance between two risers are calculated according to the relative position of Finite Element nodes which are obtained from dynamic analyses. Based on a set of such dynamic analyses, the probability distribution function of the minimum distance is estimated. The probability of riser collision can then readily be computed.
机译:随着海上石油和天然气勘探向更深水域发展,评估立管碰撞的有效,准确的方法变得越来越重要。由于环境负荷(电流和波浪),水流相互作用和表面漂浮物运动或这些影响的组合,可能会发生碰撞。本文对这些因素的影响进行了参数研究,尤其是流体干扰对最小距离统计的影响。对于返回期为100年的海洋国家,也估计了串联布置中的两个柔性立管的有条件碰撞概率。下游立管的阻力系数由于流场相互作用而根据立管的相对位置而减小。减小的拖曳力会导致在施加电流时两个立管之间的相对距离减小。这导致碰撞概率的增加。在本文中,阻力系数是通过Blevins尾迹模型获得的,可用于静态和动态分析。根据动态分析获得的有限元节点的相对位置,计算两个立管之间的最小距离的统计数据。基于一组此类动态分析,可以估算最小距离的概率分布函数。然后可以很容易地计算出立管碰撞的可能性。

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