POTENTIAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF FUTURE CSP ELECTRICITY EXPORTS FROM MOROCCO TO EUROPE

摘要

1- OverviewIn order to meet the 2020 European Renewable Energy Sources (RES) target in a cost-effective manner and fosterRES deployment in neighbouring countries, Article 9 of the Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Directive2009/28/EC, allows Member States the possibility to partially meet their RES targets by developing new RESprojects in Third countries and physically import the electricity to the European territory. A priori, Morocco andConcentrated Solar Power Plants with Thermal Energy Storage (CSP-TES) appeared as suitable candidate countryand technology to develop a first Article 9 project mainly due to its large solar potential, the existing and future gridinterconnections, its favourable regulatory environment as well as technology particularities like the possibility todeliver dispatchable solar power on demand. However, to evaluate this option it is necessary to go beyond thetechno-economic feasibility of RES exports as well as geopolitical considerations. Particularly relevant for socialacceptance of utility scale renewable plants in North Africa, are the associated impacts in terms of job creation,economic stimulation as well as environmental impacts. To shed some light to this issue, and based on the futureelectricity export figures estimated within the EU funded BETTER project, the environmental and socio-economicimpacts associated to the electricity produced by CSP-TES plants in Morocco and exported to Europe are assessedtaking into consideration various possible future local content scenarios.2- MethodologyConsidering the Moroccan estimated future CSP electricity production and export figures from the BETTER project,this work has estimated the socio-economic and environmental impacts in Morocco associated to the electricityexports to Europe. In order to assess the socio-economic impacts, since Morocco does not have an updated Input-Output table, previous estimates from the CSP socio-economic impact literature and related employment factors havebeen reviewed, analyzed and adapted to the particularities of the Moroccan case while taking into consideration thetechno-economic particularities of the studied plant and required HVDC interconnection infrastrastructure. As aresult, total economic activity and job creation distinguishing between direct, indirect and induced effects acrossMorocaan sectors have been estimated. As for the the environmental impacts, a Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) has beenconducted in order to estimate the potential impacts on sixteen environmental impact categories. A sensitivityanalysis on the local content share (table 1) has been carried out to assess the effects that different shares of localcontent in the different phases of the project will on both socio-economic and environmental impacts.3- ResultsConsidering a CSP electricity export potential from Morocco to Europe of 85 TWh/year in 2030 (BETTER D 3.2.4,2015), the associated socio-economic impacts in Morocco in terms of economic activity as well as job creationcould turn to be outstanding. As an example, under a high domestic/local content share scenario, the total economicactivity and job creation in 2030 could reach up to 120.000 M € and 230,000 jobs respectively. Similarly, theaverage environmental effects in almost all assessed categories of the electricity mix per Kwh would be reduced dueto the gradual substitution of coal, natural gas and oil plants by CSP-TES plants. However, both environmental andsocio-economic impact results are highly sensitive to the local content share of the technology in Morocco.4- ConclusionsCooperation mechanisms can help neighboring countries like Morocco decarbonize their economies through a fasterdeployment of RES which will result in positive environmental effects. Additionally, such deployment could haveimportant benefits in terms of economic stimulation and job creation. However, this work has shown that whenconsidering the environmental and socio-economic impacts of RES, one must not take for granted that positivesocio-economic and environmental impacts of RES deployment as the sign and, particularly, the magnitude dependson many factors. For example, it is important to take into consideration the whole life cycle of the project and thelocal content of the manufacturing, installation and maintenance of all components as both aspects have a remarcableimpact on the magnitude of such effects. For this reason when conducting a feasibility study of any given project, itis important to go beyond the techno-econonmic feasibility and include an ex-ante socio-economic andenvironmental impact assessment. The results of such assessment may indicate the need to implement additionalmeasures to foster the positive effects while minimizing the negative ones. For example, for the case of future CSPdeployment in Morocco, examples of such measures could include the requirement for the CSP plant to have a drycoolingsystem to minimize the consumption of water in already water stressed regions. Additionally, Morocco mustcontinue to implement the right set of policies (education, industrial policies, etc) aimed at increasing the domesticcapacities and thus the national content throughouth the project life cycle (DIE, 2013). Finally, institutions likeGermanwatch (2014), recommend to put in place some kind of sustainability safeguard measures to guarantee thatlocal communities also benefit from the deployment of such large-scale projects.