Combining WASP and ASF algorithms to forecast a Japan earthquake with Mj 7.2 or above

摘要

An earthquake-forecasting attempt is presented in this work via combining the weights and structure policy (WASP) and addition-subtraction frequency (ASF) algorithms. Specifically, based on the application of three-layer feedforward neuronets equipped with WASP algorithm, further using ASF algorithm, this work attempts to forecast a Japan earthquake with Mj 7.2 or above. Note that past earthquake dates are the only data used in this study. The feasibility and effectiveness of this attempt are verified via the numerical experiments with consistency analysis on obtained dates. Besides, according to the experimental results, an earthquake with Mj 7.2 or above may occur in August 2016 in Japan. Furthermore, with the highest possibility, the date of such an earthquake may occur is August 9, 2016.