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Quantification of landslide hazards: Example from Hong Kong

机译:滑坡灾害的量化:以香港为例

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Hong Kong has made considerable progress in reducing landslide hazards from man-made slopes. As a consequence, Hong Kong has recently commenced the systematic evaluation of landslides from natural slopes. This paper discusses the assessment approached adopted, limitations with the approach and the problems with landslide hazard assessment in general by means of a case study. The paper concludes that the current approach, whilst suitable for its original purpose, i.e. the rapid evaluation of the likely magnitude of landslide hazards at the review stage of a development, has limitations when used for systematic landslide assessments at existing developments. It is suggested that landslide hazard assessments to quantify “top events”, e.g. loss of life, would be an improved approach which would allow simplified QRA to be undertaken. However, such an approach requires a significant level of engineering geological and engineering geomorphological input. In particular, the careful derivation of appropriate values of landslide magnitude and frequency, based on expert judgment and making use of available data, knowledge and experience.
机译:香港在减少人为斜坡造成的山泥倾泻危害方面已取得可观的进展。因此,香港最近开始对天然斜坡的滑坡进行系统评估。本文通过案例讨论了采用的评估方法,方法的局限性以及滑坡灾害评估的总体问题。本文的结论是,当前的方法虽然适用于其原始目的,即在开发的审查阶段快速评估滑坡灾害可能的严重程度,但在用于现有开发的系统滑坡评估时存在局限性。建议对滑坡灾害进行评估,以量化“重大事件”,例如丧失生命,将是一种改进的方法,可以简化QRA。但是,这种方法需要大量的工程地质和工程地貌输入。特别是,根据专家的判断并利用可用的数据,知识和经验,仔细推导适当的滑坡强度和频率值。

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