Hard power in cyberspace: CNA as a political means

摘要

This analysis is a contribution to the scholarly debate on how cyber power influences international relations. It answers the following question: In what ways can an actor apply CNA to dominate an opponent, and what may restrict him in this effort? It uses Schelling's (2008) argument for dividing power into coercion and brute force, and thus the paper distinguishes between actions that inflict harm and those that impose limitations. Through this approach, it describes the difference between CNA as a means of pure destruction and CNA as a means of forcible accomplishment in order to elucidate different ways of using CNA. This analytical approach aims at generating insight into the nature of CNA threats, which in turn, facilitates development of appropriate responses. The paper argues that defensive cyber strategies and doctrines primarily should focus on CNA as a means of forcible accomplishment. However, it also discusses CNA in the form of coercive threats. It explores this type of power by assessing how the technological and organizational preconditions of CNA apply to severity of consequences and credibility. In particular, two challenges make such threats less credible: unpredictability of consequences, and the ability to make the defender expect that there are more attacks to come. However, one coercive potential of CNA may be in the form of reprisals.