PROSPECTS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGIES IN EUROPE UP TO 2030

摘要

The binding EU-wide RES target of achieving at least 27% as RES share in gross final energy demand as adopted recently by the Council has to be seen as an important first step in defining the framework for RES post 2020. Other steps, like a clear concept for and agreement on the effort sharing across Member States have to follow.The agreed target of 27% RES appears feasible to achieve without strong efforts to be taken at EU and at country level. Even in the absence of additional energy efficiency measures alternative policy scenarios related to 27% RES by 2030 lead to moderate increases in system costs and support expenditures at EU-28 level compared to baseline conditions (where a phase-out of RES support beyond 2020 is presumed). A clear and guiding framework and a removal of currently prevailing non-economic barriers is however a key necessity to keep the cost burden low and to balance cost nicely with accompanying benefits.As exemplified in Fig. 1, more than 27% RES by 2030 appears feasible but requires additional efforts to be taken. The increase in renewables would however come along with increased benefits related to Europe’s trade balance due to a (significantly) decreased demand for fossil fuels and related imports from abroad.