SPACE HEATING DEMAND IN THE DUTCH RESIDENTIAL SECTOR FROM 1960 TO 2005: A DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS

摘要

The analyses revealed that useful space heating resemble an inverse-U-shaped pattern. From 1960 useful spaceintensities soared with 30% annually to a plateau in 1970ies and thereafter declined continuously with diminishingrates of improvement. However, useful space heating intensity is still the dominating factor with respect to energydemand increases relative to the base year. Population growth (activity) and increasing per capita floor spacedemand (structure) continuously increased demand for space heating relative to the base year over the entirehorizon. The combined contribution of activity and structure is roughly of the same order of magnitude as usefulspace heating intensities. Conversely, however, final space heating intensities, tracking the change heating systems’efficiencies, continuously improved over the entire horizon analysed. The major technological improvement was thesuccessful and widespread diffusion of condensing boilers. Building codes were successful in damping demandgrowth, but contributed only little to the overall reduction of the average demand per dwelling as dwelling stockturnover is slow.