Spatiotemporal disaggregation of GB scenarios depicting increased wind capacity and electrified heat demand in dwellings

摘要

The benefit of the disaggregated approach is shown in the ability to separate onshore and offshore capacity factors,demonstrating that they are much higher offshore, which should be taken into account in estimates of future windgeneration. This analysis of extreme events demonstrates that there will be significant excess production under allbut the lowest wind capacity scenario and indicated that this excess production will start from approximately 2020.Despite the addition of significant number of heat pumps the Gone Green scenario exhibits fewer high demandevents towards the end of the scenarios than other scenarios which include very few heat pump.