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Probabilistic Belief Contraction: Considerations on Epistemic Entrenchment, Probability Mixtures and KL Divergence

机译:概率信念收缩:关于认知性紧缩,概率混合和KL散度的考虑

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Probabilistic belief contraction is an operation that takes a probability distribution P representing a belief state along with an input sentence a representing some information to be removed from this belief state, and outputs a new probability distribution P_a~- . The contracted belief state P_a~- can be represented as a mixture of two states: the original belief state P, and the resultant state P_(﹁a)~* of revising P by ﹁a. Crucial to this mixture is the mixing factor e which determines the proportion of P and P_(﹁a)~* that are used in this process in a uniform manner. Ideas from information theory such as the principle of minimum cross-entropy have previously been used to motivate the choice of the probabilistic contraction operation. Central to this principle is the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. In an earlier work we had shown that the KL divergence of P_a~- from P is fully determined by a function whose only argument is the mixing factor ε. In this paper we provide a way of interpreting ε in terms of a belief ranking mechanism such as epistemic entrenchment that is in consonance with this result. We also provide a much needed justification for why the mixing factor ε must be used in a uniform fashion by showing that the minimal divergence of P_a~- from P is achieved only when uniformity is respected.
机译:概率信念收缩是一种操作,该操作将表示信念状态的概率分布P与表示要从该信念状态中删除的一些信息的输入语句a一起使用,并输出新的概率分布P_a〜-。缩小的置信状态P_a〜-可以表示为两个状态的混合:原始置信状态P和将P修改为的结果状态P_(﹁a)〜*。对于这种混合物至关重要的是混合因子e,该因子决定了在该过程中以统一方式使用的P和P _(* a)〜*的比例。信息理论中的思想,例如最小交叉熵原理,以前已被用来激励概率收缩操作的选择。该原则的核心是Kullback-Leibler(KL)分歧。在较早的工作中,我们证明了P_a〜-与P的KL散度完全由一个函数确定,该函数的唯一论点是混合因子ε。在本文中,我们提供了一种根据信念排名机制(例如,与认知结果相符的认知根深蒂固)解释ε的方法。我们还提供了一个迫切需要的证明,说明为什么只有在考虑均匀性的情况下才能实现P_a〜-与P的最小偏差,才能以均匀的方式使用混合因子ε。

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