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IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SEISMIC PROBABILISTC RISK ASSESSMENT OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

机译:不确定性对核电厂地震概率风险评估的影响

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Sets of response-history analyses for a sample nuclear power plant (NPP) hosting a boil water reactor were conducted to investigate the impact of uncertainty on seismic risk of NPPs. The first set of analyses involves a series of numerical models to include the uncertainty in soil properties, strength and damping of structures, and damping of equipment in the sample NPP. The second set involves a numerical model with best-estimate mechanical properties. The results indicate that seismic risk of the sample NPP is underestimated when the uncertainties in mechanical properties of soil, structures and equipment are not considered in the analysis. Based on the analysis results, a simplified procedure using best-estimate model only is proposed to address uncertainty in mechanical properties of NPP components in SPRA.
机译:对装有沸水反应堆的样本核电站(NPP)进行了一系列响应历史分析,以调查不确定性对NPP地震风险的影响。第一组分析涉及一系列数值模型,包括土壤性质,强度和结构阻尼以及样品NPP中设备阻尼的不确定性。第二组涉及具有最佳估计机械性能的数值模型。结果表明,在分析中未考虑土壤,结构和设备的机械性能不确定性时,样本NPP的地震风险被低估了。根据分析结果,提出了一种仅使用最佳估计模型的简化程序来解决SPRA中NPP组件的机械性能的不确定性。

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