COMBINED GROUND-BASED AND SATELLITE COSMIC RAY MEASUREMENTS FOR FORECASTING OF GREAT RADIATION HAZARDS

摘要

We show that exact forecast of great dangerous for electronics on balloons, rackets, and space-probes solar energetic particle (SEP) events can be made by using cosmic ray (CR) high-energy particles (few GeV/nucleon and higher) which transportation from the Sun is characterized by much bigger diffusion coefficient than for small and middle energy particles. Therefore high-energy particles came from the Sun much earlier (only 8-20 minutes after acceleration and escaping into solar wind) than main part of smaller energy particles caused dangerous situation for electronics (more than 30-60 minutes later). We describe principles and experience of automatically working of program SEP-Search based on real-time one-minute CR data. The positive result which shows the exact beginning of SEP event, is determined now automatically and produced on our website corresponding Alert. We show that the probabilities of false and/or missed Alerts are negligible. If the Alert is positive, start to work program SEP-Spectrum based on ground and satellite real-time CR one-minute data, and then SEP-Source (determined total flux and energy spectrum of SEP in source), SEP-Propagation (diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space), SEP-Forecasting_Flux, SEP-Forecasting_Fluency, and as final result, SEP-Forecasting-Radiation_Hazard for air-crafts, balloons, and rackets in the atmosphere in dependence of cut-off rigidity and altitude, for satellites in dependence of the type of orbit in the magnetosphere, and for space probes at different distances from the Sun.