INTERACTIONS IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS - AN AIR NAVIGATION SERVICE PROVIDER MODEL

摘要

Recent air navigation service provider (ANSP) related activities, which aim at coping with the European Commission launched initiatives for higher performance in the European air traffic, motivate the background of this paper. The performance scheme as well as the charging regulation is amongst the key pillars of the performance-oriented second regulatory package on the Single European Sky (SES Ⅱ) with its objectives towards more efficient air navigation services. From the viewpoint of an air navigation service provider this paper firstly describes the challenges ahead due to the setup of binding national targets. Secondly it points out the lack of scientific analyses towards ANSP model-based performance assessments. Based on the idea of a System-of-Systems (SoS) this paper offers a generic approach on how to model the mutual system dependencies that lead to a complex dynamic system behavior. Applying statistics to the model, the interactions of crucial performance indicators (movements, air traffic controller hours, delay) are assessed by e.g. variance analyses. Assuring the models' accu-rateness for the indicated purpose is achieved by comparing the model's output with real-world data. Summarizing, the systematically developed model allows the analyses of several system behaviors and states (by e.g. sensitivity analyses) and so the obtained results add value to decision support.