Schedule and cost integrated estimation for complex product modeling based on Weibull distribution

摘要

Schedule and cost factors are largely related to the successful performance of a complex product manufacturing or acquisitions processes. Nonetheless, traditional statistics methods cannot effectively meet the requirement of the complex product management. In this paper, the Weibull distribution with modified least squares estimation (LSE) method is utilized to estimate the integration of schedule and cost. Firstly, the explanation of 3-parameter Weibull probability distribution function for estimation the integrated schedule and cost is demonstrated. In addition, the multi-peaks Weibull distribution is proposed for large complex product modeling consisted of several subsystems. Moreover, a modified LSE method for Weibull parametric analysis is proposed reflecting the latest schedule-cost integration status where the old data will be forgotten with the data accumulation, instead of treating all the data equally. Last but not least, the comparison with other statistics methods demonstrates the effectiveness of method in this research. The illustration using complex system samples also shows that the estimation of schedule and cost integrated based on multi-peaks Weibull distribution is viable and efficient.