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SPINN: Suspicion prediction in nuclear networks

机译:SPINN:核网络中的猜疑预测

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摘要

The best known analyses to date of nuclear proliferation networks are qualitative analyses of networks consisting of just hundreds of nodes and edges. We propose SPINN - a computational framework that performs the following tasks. Starting from existing lists of sanctioned entities, SPINN automatically builds a highly augmented network by scraping connections between individuals, companies, and government organizations from sources like LinkedIN and public company data from Bloomberg. By analyzing this open source information alone, we have built up a network of over 74K nodes and 1.09M edges, containing a smaller whitelist and a blacklist. We develop numerous “features” of nodes in such networks that take both intrinsic node properties and network properties into account, and based on these, we develop methods to classify previously unclassified nodes as suspicious or unsuspicious. On 10-fold cross validation on ground truth data, we obtain a Matthews Correlation Coefficient for our best classifier of just over 0.9. We show that of the 10 most relevant features for distinguishing between suspicious and non-suspicious nodes, the top 8 are network related measures including a novel notion of suspicion rank.
机译:迄今为止,最广为人知的核扩散网络分析是对仅由数百个节点和边缘组成的网络的定性分析。我们提出SPINN-一种执行以下任务的计算框架。从现有受制裁实体列表开始,SPINN通过从LinkedIN之类的源和彭博社的上市公司数据中抓取个人,公司和政府组织之间的联系,自动构建高度增强的网络。仅通过分析此开源信息,我们就建立了一个由74K节点和1.09M边缘组成的网络,其中包含较小的白名单和黑名单。我们在此类网络中开发了许多节点“功能”,同时考虑了固有节点属性和网络属性,并在此基础上开发了将以前未分类的节点分类为可疑或不可疑的方法。通过对地面真实数据进行10倍交叉验证,我们获得了Matthews相关系数,而我们的最佳分类器刚好超过0.9。我们显示了在区分可疑节点和非可疑节点的10个最相关的功能中,前8个是与网络相关的度量,其中包括新颖的可疑等级概念。

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