Agriculture production planning under supply uncertainty and demand uncertainty

摘要

This paper studies the company and the farmers how to make their optimal production and purchases decision in private under the random output and random market demand, studying the optimal results under optimal decision with mutual consideration of the parties in the case of independence. But for companies, only these coordinate farmers' production is not able to fully meet the company's needs, so there is a certain share of production will only be able to achieve through the purchase in the market, so that company must relay on the surrounding non-cooperative farmers to make sure the enough products apply, according to the size of the market to adjust reasonable purchases became the focus of corporate decision-making, as a two-way selection mechanism gainers households party the farmers can decide how much they sell their agricultural products to their partners or how much to sell in the foreign markets through the acquisition of personnel market price comparison . We practice with constructing a models to analyze the specific situation, in order to ensure the rationality of the model, closer to the actual market situation, in terms of output and demand uncertainty we use few randomness characterization, utilization characteristics of the newsboy model analysis. For the company we get how much to buy from market and the mount for farmer to sell to the company as two decision variables. then obtained some good results.