Use of Numerical Weather Prediction Models for NextGen ATC Wind Impact Studies

摘要

The ability to successfully achieve NextGen navigation procedures such as 4D-Trajectory Based Operations (4D-TBO) and Interval Management (IM) is dependent on the characteristics of the wind environments in which they are conducted as well as the quality of wind forecasts utilized by ground-based and airborne systems. In order to quantify the feasibility of such procedures, sensitivity analyses are commonly conducted using real or fast-time flight simulations with input from wind scenarios constructed from actual or simulated winds and wind forecasts. It is important to provide wind scenario inputs that are realistic and representative with regard to the key characteristics and metrics for the procedure being evaluated. Furthermore, it is important to translate the wind error tolerances determined from the sensitivity analyses to current or expected operational wind forecast model capabilities. This paper describes methods for utilizing data from current numerical weather prediction models to construct wind scenarios for NextGen wind impact studies and presents results of a wind forecast model performance study that can be used to translate error tolerances to achievable forecast model capabilities.