Forecasting of vernal and autumnal margins in local climate dynamics

摘要

Both the models and methods of data processing used in the field of climate dynamics originate, first of all, from the ones known in mechanics, flow-, hydro-, thermo- and electrodynamics, radio-physics, electrical engineering, and so on. In particular, the fractal approach to analyse the noisy time series under uncertainties of different nature allows to get good forecasts in dynamics of technical systems. We propose to adapt the approach to consider the forecasts of seasonality in local climate dynamics. It requires to specify the fractal model to describe the interannual variability of the vernal and autumnal margins, where the homogeneity of the analyzed events within annual warming-cooling cycles is kept. We use the modified bifurcation diagrams based on both SUC-logic and HDS-model to find the terms of the qualitative constancy of the local climate dynamics. So, the homogeneity of events within the terms of the homogeneous dynamics permits to estimate statistically the piece-wise tendencies. From such viewpoint we explain how the possibility to the forecasting can be changed due to the bifurcation phenomena and hysteresis effects, and verify HDS-model by the role of the solar synchronization to form the dominant qualitative changes in local climate dynamics during winter months. The research is based on the processing the historical meteorological data over the last century timescale. The obtained results open the way to apply the experimental bifurcation analysis to develop the forecasting of the vernal and autumnal margins.