Development of demand forecast model for the transmission system master plan of Oman (2014–2030)

摘要

The objective of this paper is to present the methodology, approach and results of the demand forecast analysis used in the Transmission Master Plan of Oman 2014-2030. Oman Electricity Transmission Company and Tractebel Engineering analyze the challenges and review the existing load demand forecast studies used in Oman. Different studies analyze load forecasting at short to medium term. A spatialization of the long term load forecast is required in the Transmission Master Plan (2014-2030) of Oman in order to correctly address the transmission expansion plan. Several approaches are proposed to review and challenge existing studies and to spatialize the load demand forecast. The approaches are called global and areabased forecasting methods. Each approach is complimentary and allows to cross-check the adequacy of the method to the peculiarities of the local load demand and the accuracy of the data available. The global method allows linking the electricity consumption to the various economic indicators through mathematical regression relating the electrical energy consumption to socio-economic indicators. The area-based based method aims to spatialize the load forecast taking into account the consumption at regional level and the local characteristics of each area in the Sultanate. The results of the load demand forecast analysis defined the area with very high growth, the amount of generation required in the firm of the Transmission Master Plan and accordingly the least cost transmission network development plan.