The impact of distributed generation on the energy tariff and the Utility revenue in Brazil

摘要

The connection of distributed generation has been already a challenge in many countries such as Spain, Germany, Denmark and others. Technical solution has already been tested in places with high penetration of solar and wind to guarantee the reliability and the quality of the electricity delivered to the consumers and prosumers. Not only impacts in terms of power quality and reliability are important, but the health of the financial system behind the electricity businesses is another milestone to overcome. This paper presents an analysis about the impact that the future installation of distributed generation will have on the revenue of Brazilian Utilities if we sustain the current energy tariff. Three of the main Utilities in Brazil were studied. Our preliminary analysis show that the drop in EBITDA could be more 38% by 2025. This impact could lead, for instance, to incapacity of making new investments to modernized the distribution systems.