Chaotic Property Identification and Prediction of Performance Degradation Time Series for Hydropower Unit

摘要

The performance degradation time series of hydropower unit is reconstructed in phase space by using the chaos theory. Chaotic property of the series is found through analysis. The degradation time series is predicted based on the adding-weight one-rank local-region method. The condition monitoring data of hydropower unit are used to verify the proposed method. The results show that it is feasible to predict the performance degradation of hydropower unit by using the chaos prediction method. The proposed method has high accuracy. It is a new way to operate and maintain the hydropower unit.